Donald Trump’s criminal conviction marks a series of historic firsts. He is the first former or serving US president to be found guilty of a crime and the first presumptive major-party nominee to become a convicted felon.
As Trump prepares to appeal the hush-money case and awaits sentencing on July 11—which could include prison time and a hefty fine—the political ramifications are already being considered. However, predicting the fallout is challenging given the unprecedented nature of the situation.
“We often look to history to find some kind of hint of what’s going to happen,” says Jeffrey Engel, director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University. “But there is nothing in the record that comes even close to this.”
Trump secured the Republican presidential nomination earlier this year and is set to be officially nominated at the party’s convention shortly after his sentencing. Polls show he is in a statistical dead heat with President Joe Biden, with a slight edge in several key swing states. However, these same polls indicate that his conviction could alter the political landscape.
During the Republican primaries this winter, exit polls revealed that significant numbers of voters would not support Trump if he were convicted of a felony. An April survey by Ipsos and ABC News found that 16% of Trump supporters might reconsider their support in such a scenario.
These were hypothetical convictions, but now voters are dealing with a real one. “The real verdict is going to be [on] November 5, by the people,” Trump said after leaving the courtroom.
Doug Schoen, a pollster who worked with Democratic President Bill Clinton and independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, suggests that voters might not be heavily swayed by the hush-money case, given that it relates to events from eight years ago. “What voters will be thinking about in November is inflation, the southern border, competition with China and Russia, and the money being spent on Israel and Ukraine,” he said.
Even a small decline in Trump’s support could be pivotal in a close race. If just a few thousand Trump voters stay home in key states like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, it could be decisive. “I do think it will have an impact and damage him as a candidate,” says Ariel Hill-Davis, co-founder of Republican Women for Progress. She notes that younger, college-educated suburban voters have been wary of Trump’s behavior and governance style. “The guilty verdict is going to further shore up those concerns.”
However, many leading Republicans quickly rallied behind Trump, showing loyalty to their party nominee. House Speaker Mike Johnson called it a shameful day in American history, labeling the trial as a political exercise rather than a legal one.
For years, experts and opponents have predicted Trump’s political downfall, only to be proven wrong. His 2016 campaign was marked by scandals, including his infamous Access Hollywood tape. Trump’s party supported him through two impeachments and the chaotic end of his presidency, including the Capitol riot by his supporters. Despite these events, Trump has staged a political comeback that positions him to potentially reclaim the White House in November.
“It’s axiomatic at this point, but Trump’s continued support, despite the kind of scandal that would have scuttled literally any other previous candidate in American history, is truly astounding,” says Mr. Engel.
This historic criminal conviction could be different—especially if Trump’s appeals fail and he faces the possibility of prison. Alternatively, it might just be another event that, in hindsight, proves to be a bump on Trump’s road to power.
Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University, has a political model that has accurately predicted the winner of every presidential race since 1984. He acknowledges that Trump’s criminal conviction could be the kind of “cataclysmic and unprecedented” event that disrupts his model and alters history.
“History books will record this as a truly extraordinary, unprecedented event, but a lot will depend on what happens afterwards,” he says. The ultimate judgment on the significance of Trump’s conviction will be rendered by voters in November. If Trump loses, the conviction will likely be seen as a contributing factor. If he wins, it may become just a footnote in his tumultuous yet impactful political career.
